The Week In Commodities…
US Dollar Index: 1.27%
Natural Gas: 3.3%
Crude Oil (WTI): 2.15%
Again Natural Gas had a solid week. The rally did stall Thursday morning after the storage report showed less storage than was expected. NG could spike if colder-than-expected weather sticks around, but the seasonal trend at this point is often downward, so premium on the call side (Deep Out Of The Money) may become attractive if in spread-form.
Energy had a fairly strong week, since the global problems seem to be easing a bit. Gold and silver were the big losers this week. Fear is leaving the markets with the latest breakout and the rise of the dollar. Also, there’s talk of the Fed now being on hold, so gold hit the brakes. I don’t know how much more downside I would expect here, but this week the weakness was profound. Copper looked pretty good, with new-found US-China friendliness helping this economically-sensitive metal to rise. Maybe there’s some safe premium on the put side of things.
The USDA Crop Production Report was released today, showing corn yield estimates fell slightly. Corn rose sharply, then fell off again. The grain has been in a down-trend for the past few weeks. As it works it’s way lower, deep out of the money put premium becomes safer and more lucrative.